End Of History Illusion Homework Help
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53563633773 |
Type |
Essay |
Writer Level |
Masters |
Style |
APA |
Sources/References |
4 |
Perfect Number of Pages to Order |
5-10 Pages |
Description/Paper Instructions
End Of History Illusion Homework Help
Study in Science Shows ‘End of History Illusion’ – NYTimes.com
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J a r t u i : r ‘ y . i 2 0 i 3
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WhyYouWon’t Be the PersonYou Expect to Be 11 JOHN TIERNEY
When we remember our past selves, they seem quite different. We know how much our
personalities and tastes have changed over the years. But when we look ahead, somehow we
expect ourselves to stay the same, a team of psychologists said Thursday, describing research
they conducted of people’s self-perceptions.
They called this phenomenon the “end of history illusion,” in which people tend to
“underestimate how much they will change in the future.” According to their research, which
involved more than 19,ooo people ranging in age from rB to 68, the illusion persists from
teenage years into retirement.
“Middle-aged people – like me – often look back on our teenage selves with some mixture
of amusement and chagrin,” said one of the authors, Daniel T. Gilbert, a psychologist at
Harvard. “What we never seem to realize is that our future selves will look back and think
the very same thing about us. At every age we think we’re having the last laugh, and at every
age we’re wrong.”
Other psychologists said they were intrigued by the findings, published Thursday in the journal Science, and impressed with the amount of supporting evidence. Participants were
asked about their personality traits and preferences – their favorite foods, vacations,
hobbies and bands – in years past and present, and then asked to rnake predictions for the
future. Not surprisingly, the younger people in the study reported more change in the
previous decade than did the older respondents. But when asked to predict what their
personalities and tastes would be like in ten years, people of all ages consistently played
down the potential changes ahead.
Thus, the typical zo-year-old woman’s predictions for her next decade weren’t nearly as
radical as the typical 3o-year-old woman’s recollection of how much she had changed in her
zos. This sort of discrepancy persisted among respondents all the way into their 6os.
And the discrepancy didn’t seem to be because of faulty memories, because the personality
changes recalled by people jibed quite well with independent research charting how
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Study in Science Shows ‘End of History Illusion’ – NYTimes.com Pase 2 af 3
personality traits shift u’ith age. People seemed to be much better at recalling their former selves than at imagining how much they would change in the future.
Why? Dr. Gilbert and his collaborators, Jordi Quoidbach of Harvard and Timothy D. Wilson of the University of Virginia, had a few theories, starting with the well-documented tendenry of people to overestimate their own wonderfulness.
“Believing that we just reached the peak of our personal evolution makes us feel good,” Dr. Quoidbach said. “The
‘I wish that I knew then what I know now’ experience might give us a sense of satisfaction and meaning, whereas realizing how transient our preferences and values are might lead us to doubt every decision and generate anxiety.”
or maybe the explanation has more to do with mental energy: predicting the future requires more work than simply recalling the past. “People may confuse the difficulty of imagining personal change with the unlikelihood of change itself,” the authors wrote in Science.
The phenomenon does have its downsides, the authors said. For instance, people make decisions in their youth – about getting a tattoo, say, or a choice of spouse – that they sometimes come to regret.
And that illusion of stability could lead to dubious financial expectations, as the researchers demonstrated in an experiment asking people about how much they’d pay to see their favorite bands. when asked about their favorite band from a decade ago, respondents were typica\ willing to shell out g8o to attend a concert of the band today. But when they were asked about their current favorite band and how much they’d be willing to spend to see the band’s concert in ro years, the price went up to $129. Even though they realized that favorites from a decade ago like Creed or the Dixie Chicks have lost some oftheir luster, they apparently expect Coldplay and Rihanna to blaze on forever.
“The end-of-history effect may represent a failure in personal imagination,” said Dan p. McAdams, a psychologist at Northwestern, who has done separate research into the stories people construct about their past and future lives. He has often heard people tell complex, dynamic stories about the past but then make vague, prosaic projections of a future in which things stay pretty much the same.
Dr. McAdams was reminded of a conversation with his 4-year-old daughter during the craze for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles in the 198os. when he told her they might not be her favorite thing one day, she refused to acknowledge the possibility. But later, in her zos, she confessed to him that some part of her 4-year-otd mind had realized he might be right.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/science/studv-in-science-shows-end-nf-hi crnnr-illrrcinn 1 t1,n-r11
Study in Science Shows ‘End of History Illusion’ – NYTimes.com Page 3 of 3
“She resisted the idea of change, as it dawned on her at age 4, because she could not imagine what else she would ever substitute for the Ttrrtles,” Dr. McAdams said. “She had a sneaking suspicion that she would change, but she cor,rldn’t quite imagine how, so she stood with her assertion of continuity. Maybe something like this goes on with all of us.”
RUBRIC
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Content (worth a maximum of 50% of the total points) |
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30 points out of 50: The essay illustrates a rudimentary understanding of the relevant material by mentioning but not full explaining the relevant content; identifying some of the key concepts/ideas though failing to fully or accurately explain many of them; using terminology, though sometimes inaccurately or inappropriately; and/or incorporating some key claims/points but failing to explain the reasoning behind them or doing so inaccurately. Elements of the required response may also be lacking. |
40 points out of 50: The essay illustrates solid understanding of the relevant material by correctly addressing most of the relevant content; identifying and explaining most of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology; explaining the reasoning behind most of the key points/claims; and/or where necessary or useful, substantiating some points with accurate examples. The answer is complete. |
50 points: The essay illustrates exemplary understanding of the relevant material by thoroughly and correctly addressing the relevant content; identifying and explaining all of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology explaining the reasoning behind key points/claims and substantiating, as necessary/useful, points with several accurate and illuminating examples. No aspects of the required answer are missing. |
Use of Sources (worth a maximum of 20% of the total points). |
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15 out 20 points: Credible Scholarly sources are used effectively support claims and are, for the most part, clear and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition is used with only a few minor errors. There are minor errors in reference and/or citations. And/or there is some use of questionable sources. |
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10 points: Student provides a high-caliber, formatted paper. This includes an APA 6th edition cover page, abstract, page number, headers and is double spaced in 12’ Times Roman Font. Additionally, the paper conforms to the specific number of required written pages and neither goes over or under the specified length of the paper. |
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