AD 605 Operations Management Essay Assignment
Order ID 53563633773 Type Essay Writer Level Masters Style APA Sources/References 4 Perfect Number of Pages to Order 5-10 Pages Description/Paper Instructions
Individual Assignment
Show as many details of your calculations as possible.
1. This table showing actual sales for the past 5 quarters and the forecast that was made for the 4th Quarter of 2016.
a. Using the four quarters of 2017 for the analysis, calculate the MAD assuming that an exponential smoothing model (?=0.8) was used to forecast sales.
b. Using an exponential smoothing model (?=0.8), calculate the sales forecast for 2018 Quarter 1.
c. Predict the range of uncertainty for the forecast of 2018 Quarter 1 sales, accurate with 95% confidence.
d. Calculate the coefficient of variation (CV) for the 2018 Quarter 1 forecast.
Sales Forecast
2016 Quarter 4 300 400
2017 Quarter 1 270
2017 Quarter 2 230
2017 Quarter 3 340
2017 Quarter 4 376
2. At a college counselling office, an inventory of hats from each of 50 top universities is maintained so that new customers can choose a hat based on the University they seek to enter. BU hats cost the company $8.50 each. Last year, demand for BU hats was 300 per month, evenly spaced throughout the year. This demand is expected to continue in the future. The shipping and other ordering costs for the hats is $75 per order. The holding cost rate is estimated to be 25% annually.
a. If the company used a fixed order quantity model, calculate the optimal economic order quantity (EOQ). b. About how often will orders be placed (in weeks)?
c. How many orders will be placed per year?
d. If management decided to order the hats on a weekly basis (one order per week), how much more would it cost the company per year (using just ordering and holding costs)?
e. If the hat supplier offered a discount for ordering 1500 or more hats (at a cost of $8.25 per hat), how many hats should be ordered based on a fixed order quantity model?
3. Consider a yoga studio that sells yoga mats. Each yoga mat costs the studio $10.25 if it purchases less than 50 in a single order. If the studio purchases at least 50 but less than 100, the cost is $10.00 per mat. If the studio purchases at least 100 but less than 400, the cost is $9.75 per mat. Finally, if the studio purchases at least 400 mats, the cost is $9.25 per mat. Demand for each mat is estimated to be 540 annually, evenly spaced throughout the year. The ordering costs is $50 per order. The holding cost rate is estimated to be 40% annually.
a. If the company used a fixed order quantity model, calculate the optimal economic order quantity.
b. If management decided to order yoga mats once a week, how much more would it cost the company?
4. Consider a motor vehicle department, where an average of 30 customers arrive per hour. Arrivals follow a Poisson process. Each customer requires one service: (a) drivers license renewal, (b) car registration, or (c) new drivers license. Historically, 30% of customers will come for a drivers license renewal, 45% will come for car registration, and 25% will come for a new drivers license. Service times are exponentially distributed, averaging 17.5 minutes for a drivers license renewal, 12.5 minutes for car registration, and 6 minutes for a new drivers license. The M/M/s model (Excel template) will be used as the basis of all analyses. Do not turn in the entire spreadsheet just list the values of ?, ?, and s, and the output you used to solve the problem.
a. To analyze the drivers license renewal queue (using hours as the time unit), the arrival rate (?) should be what number?
b. To analyze the drivers license renewal queue (using hours as the time unit), the service rate (?) should be what number?
c. Find the server utilization, the average time a customer will wait in queue, and the probability that the queue size will exceed 10 customers, if three servers are used for drivers license renewal.
d. With one more server, what will be the server utilization, the average time a customer will wait in queue, and the probability that the queue size will exceed 10 customers?
RUBRIC
QUALITY OF RESPONSE NO RESPONSE POOR / UNSATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY GOOD EXCELLENT Content (worth a maximum of 50% of the total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 20 points out of 50: The essay illustrates poor understanding of the relevant material by failing to address or incorrectly addressing the relevant content; failing to identify or inaccurately explaining/defining key concepts/ideas; ignoring or incorrectly explaining key points/claims and the reasoning behind them; and/or incorrectly or inappropriately using terminology; and elements of the response are lacking. 30 points out of 50: The essay illustrates a rudimentary understanding of the relevant material by mentioning but not full explaining the relevant content; identifying some of the key concepts/ideas though failing to fully or accurately explain many of them; using terminology, though sometimes inaccurately or inappropriately; and/or incorporating some key claims/points but failing to explain the reasoning behind them or doing so inaccurately. Elements of the required response may also be lacking. 40 points out of 50: The essay illustrates solid understanding of the relevant material by correctly addressing most of the relevant content; identifying and explaining most of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology; explaining the reasoning behind most of the key points/claims; and/or where necessary or useful, substantiating some points with accurate examples. The answer is complete. 50 points: The essay illustrates exemplary understanding of the relevant material by thoroughly and correctly addressing the relevant content; identifying and explaining all of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology explaining the reasoning behind key points/claims and substantiating, as necessary/useful, points with several accurate and illuminating examples. No aspects of the required answer are missing. Use of Sources (worth a maximum of 20% of the total points). Zero points: Student failed to include citations and/or references. Or the student failed to submit a final paper. 5 out 20 points: Sources are seldom cited to support statements and/or format of citations are not recognizable as APA 6th Edition format. There are major errors in the formation of the references and citations. And/or there is a major reliance on highly questionable. The Student fails to provide an adequate synthesis of research collected for the paper. 10 out 20 points: References to scholarly sources are occasionally given; many statements seem unsubstantiated. Frequent errors in APA 6th Edition format, leaving the reader confused about the source of the information. There are significant errors of the formation in the references and citations. And/or there is a significant use of highly questionable sources. 15 out 20 points: Credible Scholarly sources are used effectively support claims and are, for the most part, clear and fairly represented. 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